Organic traffic has always been one of the main gateways to websites, blogs, portals, and applications. But new data has raised alarm in the market: according to an analysis published by Search Engine Journal based on data from SparkToro and Similarweb, for every 1.000 searches performed on Google in the United States, only 232 generate clicks for the so-called open web, that is, websites outside of Google's own ecosystem.
For those who monetize with AdSense, ADX, header bidding, programmatic networks, or direct media sales, this number is not just a curiosity. It directly impacts revenue predictability, SEO strategies, and how publishers need to think about content distribution in the coming years.
What do the data show?
According to the survey, approximately 68% of searches in the United States end without generating a click to any external website. Among the observed behaviors, 39% of searches end without any further action, while 29% lead the user to perform a new search within Google itself.
Only 32% of searches generate any clicks. Of those clicks, approximately 66% lead to open web pages, 27% remain within Alphabet and Google properties such as YouTube, Maps, and AI Mode, and about 6% go to paid ads.
The most sensitive data for publishers appears in the historical comparison. According to the analysis, the percentage of searches that generated any clicks fell from approximately 41% in 2024 to 32% in 2026. This suggests that, although Google continues to be one of the main tools for internet discovery, a decreasing percentage of searches is generating traffic to external websites.
Why is this happening?
One of the factors most associated with this change is the growth of answers displayed directly on the results page. Features such as AI Overviews, informative panels, quick answers, maps, videos, images, and AI-powered experiences reduce the need for the user to visit a website to find an answer.
If someone searches for "what is the capital of Australia?" and Google immediately provides the information, the click becomes unnecessary. The challenge for publishers arises when this behavior also occurs in more elaborate searches, comparisons, recommendations, and queries that traditionally generated traffic for editorial content.
According to the article, Rand Fishkin, founder of SparkToro, attributes a significant part of this trend to the growth of answers presented directly in the SERP. The Search Engine Journal also highlights studies by Ahrefs that point to significant drops in click-through rates when AI Overviews are present. However, it's important to note that the research doesn't attribute the entire reduction in clicks exclusively to AI features, as various factors influence user search behavior.
Direct impact on monetization
For websites and apps that rely on traffic, fewer clicks mean fewer visitors reaching the pages. As a consequence, there tend to be fewer ad impression opportunities and a lower total volume of inventory available for monetization.
The impacts may appear in indicators such as:
- Reduction in the total volume of advertising impressions.
- Reduced inventory availability for programmatic campaigns.
- Drop in the number of sessions
- Limited reach of video formats and rich media.
- Reduced potential for acquiring new users.
It's important to highlight that reduced traffic doesn't necessarily mean a drop in RPM. In some scenarios, a smaller, but more qualified audience can generate better monetization results. Even so, a loss of volume usually represents a challenge for operations that heavily rely on scale.
For apps, the impact is also felt. Many apps use content indexed on the web as part of their acquisition and discovery strategy. If more answers are resolved directly in the SERP, part of that acquisition funnel may become more restricted.
Is SEO dead? Not even close.
Despite the alarmist headlines that usually appear whenever Google changes something, SEO remains extremely relevant.
The difference is that SEO can no longer be seen merely as a machine for generating mass clicks. Today, it also needs to contribute to brand building, thematic authority, reputation, and visibility within the new search environments driven by artificial intelligence.
Brand searches, local research, transactional inquiries, and in-depth content continue to generate significant value. The challenge now is to create content that offers something beyond what a quick response can deliver.
In other words, it's not enough to just rank. You need to be remembered, cited, recommended, and chosen.
What do publishers need to do now?
The first step is to revise organic growth expectations. Many projections still use benchmarks based on search behavior that are changing rapidly.
Next comes the content strategy. Generic, superficial content or content focused solely on answering simple questions tends to face increasing competition from the answers displayed directly in the SERP.
To capture the click, the content needs to deliver unique selling points such as:
- in-depth analysis
- Detailed comparisons
- Practical experience
- Expert opinions
- Proprietary data
- Useful tools and resources
It is also becoming increasingly important to diversify audience sources. Newsletters, push notifications, social media, communities, proprietary apps, and direct traffic help reduce exclusive dependence on Google.
Another key point is to work with search intent. Simple queries may generate fewer clicks than in the past, but searches related to decision-making, comparison, and purchase continue to offer valuable opportunities for publishers.
And where does programmatic monetization come in?
With less traffic available, inventory quality becomes even more important.
The publisher's competition is no longer limited to other websites. In many cases, it also extends to Google's own products, which are increasingly answering questions directly within the search experience.
In this scenario, fast, responsive websites with high viewability, a good browsing experience, and well-positioned advertising formats tend to extract more value from each session.
More than just seeking traffic growth, publishers need to focus on increasing revenue per user. This involves RPM optimization, improving dwell time, content recirculation strategies, internal recommendations, format testing, and constant monitoring of monetization metrics.
The fact that only 23% of Google searches generate clicks to the open web helps illustrate an important transformation in search behavior. Google remains one of the main gateways to the internet, but a growing share of the answers remains within the company's own ecosystem.
For publishers, this requires a change in mindset. Those who continue to rely exclusively on organic volume may experience more volatility in traffic and revenue. On the other hand, those who invest in quality content, brand strengthening, their own audience channels, and qualified inventory tend to be better prepared to compete in this new scenario.
Here at Join Ads, we closely monitor changes in search and programmatic media to help publishers transform every visit into more value. Because, in the end, traffic may become more competitive, but those who monetize strategically continue to come out ahead.
